Egypt is one of the three largest borrowers from the IMF on earth. Egyptians have opinions about this. Strong ones. Here is a number that might reframe them.
McKinsey published the audit. Since 2000, the global economy created $4 of wealth for every $1 invested. Sounds like a miracle. Until you read the next line.
$3 of those $4 were not real.
Not new factories. Not new roads. Not new output. Asset prices went up. Stock markets went up. Real estate went up. The wealth existed on screens. The economy underneath did not grow at the same rate.
And for every $1 the world invested, it also created $1.90 in new debt.
This is not Egypt. This is the United States. Europe. China. Japan. The seven richest economies in the world, the G7, saw their productivity growth fall from 1.8% a year to 0.8%.
The engine that is supposed to justify all that borrowing slowed by more than half. The borrowing did not.
The world's total household wealth reached $600 trillion. Three-quarters of the gains were paper. The debt underneath kept growing.
Sound familiar?
Egyptians watched the pound lose two-thirds of its value in two years. Inflation hit 34%. Savings that looked solid on paper turned out to be exactly that. Paper.
Egyptians blamed the system. Blamed the borrowing. Blamed the IMF. And in many cases they were right to ask hard questions.
But McKinsey's data adds a layer that most of that debate is missing. What happened in Egypt did not happen because Egypt is uniquely reckless. It happened because the entire global economy has been running on the same formula.
Borrow. Let asset prices rise. Call it growth. Repeat.
The US did it with real estate and equities. China did it with property. Europe did it with sovereign debt. Egypt did it with a currency held artificially strong until it could not hold anymore.
McKinsey's prescription is the same for all of them. The US needs to save more. Europe needs to invest more. China needs to consume more. Each by more than 3% of GDP. The largest economies on earth are being told to structurally rewire.
Egypt is being told a version of the same thing. And parts of it are already moving.
Inflation dropped from 40% to 12%. Reserves reached $52.8 billion. A primary budget surplus near 6% of GDP means the government earns more than it spends before interest payments.
Agricultural exports hit $11.5 billion. ICT grew from 3.5% to 5.4% of GDP in four years with 300,000 new export jobs.
Whether that is fast enough. Whether the cost was justified. Whether the path forward is the right one. Those are the questions that matter now.
The IMF Spring Meetings begin Monday in Washington. Monday is also Sham El-Nessim. Both require a strong stomach.
The only exit McKinsey sees for anyone is the same. Not more paper. Real exports. Real productivity. Real output.
Egypt's debate about borrowing is not wrong. It is just incomplete. The global economy has the same addiction. Egypt is one of the few countries already in withdrawal.
Sources: McKinsey Global Institute, “Out of Balance: What’s Next for Growth, Wealth, and Debt,” October 2025 ($4 wealth per $1 invested; 75% paper; $1.90 debt per $1 invested; G7 productivity halved; $600T household wealth). McKinsey, “Engines of Growth: Egypt,” February 2026 ($13-17B FX opportunity; ICT 5.4% GDP; primary surplus ~6%). CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla, AlUla Conference, February 2026 ($52.6B reserves; inflation from 40% to 12%). Ahram Online ($11.5B agricultural exports). IMF Spring Meetings 2026 (April 13-18, Washington D.C.).
Abdellatif Olama published the above mention amazing analysis on his amazing LinkedIn account earlier today:
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